An Ownership Leverage Primer For Large-Field Tournaments
Leverage is not contrarianism. Here is the difference in practice.
M. Okafor · Fri Sep 18, 2:05 PM ET · 8 min read
Contrarianism is avoiding popular players. Leverage is accepting popular players when their projection justifies the ownership, and avoiding them when it does not.
The practical test is simple: compare projected ownership to projected share of optimal lineups. A player projected in 22% of lineups who appears in 28% of simulated optimal lineups is under-owned even though he is chalk.
This week, the model flags one popular tight end as correctly owned and one popular running back as meaningfully over-owned relative to his simulated optimal rate.
Use leverage where it is cheap: the third and fourth receiver slots, the flex, and the defence. Those spots move your uniqueness without giving up much projected score.